What Novo Nordisk missed was precisely what Eli Lilly caught

By taking the lead in introducing GLP-1 hypoglycemic products to the market, its subsidiary Ozempic has become synonymous with new weight loss drugs, with its stock price soaring nearly 300% in three years, showing unparalleled success.

But in just one year, this giant encountered a "Waterloo": new drug trials fell short of expectations, stock prices plummeted by 60%, CEO resigned in disappointment, and the profit warning at the end of July caused its market value to evaporate by over 60 billion euros.

What did Novo Nordisk go through from being the leader to being chased?

In 2017, Ozempic was approved for the treatment of diabetes; In 2021, Wegovy obtained the indication for obesity and became the first FDA approved long-acting GLP-1 weight loss drug.

With its first mover advantage, Ozempic has long occupied half of the market share, and even faced a shortage of supply at one point.

The turning point occurred during the strong rise of competitor Eli Lilly.

Data shows that Mounjaro, a subsidiary of Eli Lilly, has a weekly prescription volume of 622000, surpassing Ozempic's 607000; Another drug, Zepbound, has also surpassed Wegovy.

More importantly, experiments have shown that Lilly products have better weight loss effects - Mounjaro lost an average of 21%, better than Wegovy's 16%, and reportedly had fewer side effects.

Market voting with feet: Over the past year, Novo Nordisk's stock price has fallen by 60%, while Eli Lilly has only fallen by 6%.

Barclays analyst Emily Field bluntly stated that this is like a "slow-moving car accident", and Novo Nordisk has fallen behind in both sales and research and development progress.

The market sense of misjudgment is the first and foremost issue. When consumers are willing to pay for weight loss pills out of their own pockets and bypass insurance restrictions, Novo Nordisk still sticks to its early strategy.

The old drug Saxenda, whose sales forecast anchoring effect is mediocre, holds a conservative attitude towards the surge in demand, even believing that "predicting an outbreak is crazy" and is more wary of overcapacity.

On the other hand, although Lilly also encountered supply problems, it solved bottlenecks faster. When patients and doctors couldn't get medicine at Novo Nordisk, they turned to Eli Lilly and never looked back.

The sluggishness of transformation is equally fatal. As a traditional insulin giant, Novo Nordisk is accustomed to a promotion model centered around clinical doctors, but it is difficult to adapt to the new logic of "consumer+celebrity driven" in the weight loss drug market.

Lilly has decisively launched the LillyDirect platform, offering low-priced direct connections to patients; However, Novo Nordisk did not follow suit and launch NovoCare until March this year, which slowed down the pace by nearly a year.

An industry insider commented, "Novo Nordisk is too complacent about its drug advantages and forgot to proactively deliver it to patients

The imbalance between globalization and localization intensifies passively. Novo Nordisk is accustomed to synchronously launching new products in multiple countries, ensuring supply even if profits are lower, which disperses investment in the core market of the United States.

However, Eli Lilly, rooted in the United States, understands the subtle differences in the local medical market and has more flexible strategies.

His confidence comes from the enormous potential of the market - with over 1 billion obese and overweight people worldwide, the penetration rate is still extremely low.

With manufacturing, technology, and brand, we are still in a favorable position, "he tried to revive confidence.

But the reality is severe: the experimental data of the next generation product CagriSema did not meet expectations (with an average weight loss of 23%, below the target of 25%), and the stock price fell by 10% in response;

Although the oral version of Semaglutide is being declared, it has been questioned due to the restriction that it cannot be taken with food.

And Eli Lilly's Orforge lipon is expected to be launched in 2026, which will further pressure if the side effects are smaller.

The breakthrough point of Doustdar may lie in "acceleration": accelerating the ramp up of production capacity, accelerating the research and development pipeline (most existing drugs will not be launched until 2030), and accelerating acquisition and reinforcement.

More importantly, this established pharmaceutical company must undergo a thorough transformation - from being "clinically driven" to being "consumer driven", truly understanding the new rules of the weight loss drug market.

Nowadays, the GLP-1 race has shifted from a duopoly to a group of competitors, with Roche, Amgen, AstraZeneca, and others entering the race.

For Novo Nordisk, 'setbacks cannot define a company, but rather its ability to respond' - this statement from the new CEO is both a pledge and a determination to fight to the death.

The battle of 'mending the fold after the sheep are lost' has just begun.